TBC Capital has Issued Updated, Macro-Sectoral Review6 Jul, 2021
TBC Capital has hosted presentation of macro-sectoral review. During the meeting current conditions, the newest dynamics of macro-parameters and expectations were discussed the business and public sector representatives. Also, expectations for 2021-2022 were presented for separate business sectors. After the review, panel discussion was held with participation of public and private sector representatives. Along with the physical events, interested individuals were given an opportunity to observe presentation of the publication in online regime.
According to TBC Capital forecast, growth of GDP in Georgia is higher than expected- actual growth in 2021 will be approximately 10.5%, while in 2022- 6.5%.
Based on the survey results, 40% of the income generated from the tourism in 2019 will be recovered in 2021, and indicators of 2022 compared to 2019 will reach 90%. It shall be noted that, economic growth is partially conditioned by recovery of income generated from the tourism. One of the most important preconditions for economic recovery is vaccination. In countries important for Georgian in terms of tourism vaccination process is conducted in uncertain sequence- the process is fast in Israel and countries of European Union, while in countries of neighboring regions the process is relatively slow. 5.6% of the population in Georgia has already received one dose of vaccine. While 30% of population has unknown natural immunity against the virus.
By the end of 2021 inflation will reach the point of 7.4%, by 2022 it will be lower than targeted 3%. As a result of decreased inflation and full recovery of tourist activity ease of monetary policy is expected. TBC Capital expects USD/GEL exchange rate to reach the point of 3.0-3.3 by the end of the year.
According to the sectoral part of the publication, globally, based on the stock prices, large majority of sectors will continue to grow. Only the industries of aviation, oil, and gas fall behind the pre-crisis level.
Survey notes that, taking into consideration improvement dynamics in real estate sales and rent, the sales will supersede pre-crisis indicates in 2021.
Visible improvement is observed in load of big hotels. However, indicators in small and medium hotels remain unchanged.
“Publications of TBC Capital on dynamics of economic recovery is an additional instrument for public and private sector representatives to assess current situation and improve their business activity planning. After the crisis period, now we have reached rather important period- period of recovery, where our role and responsibility are doubled. In order to be prepared for the economic growth and improvements sectoral and macro reviews remain one of the priority areas of TBC Capital. TBC Capital has responded to crisis in very first days, and we were the flagmen to conduct remote webinar on assessment of COVID-19 impact on economics. 1 year later, complying with all applicable regulations and safety rules, we were the first to host our partners in physical environment”- said Giorgi Tkhelidze, Deputy Director General of TBC Capital.